Can ‘The Revenant’ Beat Back 3 Newcomers to Finally Top Box Office?

Three should be the charm for Leonardo DiCaprio and “The Revenant,” Fox’s Best Picture Oscar frontrunner, which has been an impressive runner-up at the box office the past two weekends.

The Alejandro G. Iñárritu-directed frontier vengeance saga will take in around $18 million in its third weekend of wide release and top last weekend’s champ, “Ride Along 2,” as well as “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” and three wide openers for this weekend’s crown, analysts say.

Either just above or just below $10 million is where they see Lionsgate’s Zac Efron-Robert De Niro comedy “Dirty Grandpa,” the low-budget horror film “The Boy” from STX and Lakeshore Entertainment and Sony’s Chloe Grace Moretz young-adult sci-fi tale “The 5th Wave.”

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No one is expecting a record weekend, as late January is when studios typically slot films that don’t have natural launch dates, like summer for popcorn movies or fall for awards-bait films. That means the jockeying for position among Oscar contenders like “Spotlight,” “Brooklyn,” “The Big Short” and “Room” could provide the real excitement.

“The Revenant” has out-grossed those Best Picture rivals handily. It came in just a couple of million dollars behind “The Force Awakens” in its wide debut two weeks ago and about the same behind “Ride Along 2” over the four-day Martin Luther King holiday weekend, when it grossed $38 million. Its domestic total will go over $100 million this weekend, and it should top $160 million worldwide as well.

“Ride Along 2” could slow considerably from its MLK-weekend win given its weak reviews and so-so CinemaScore, and “The Force Awakens” has lost some steam, so both could wind up around $15 million. Michael Bay‘s Benghazi attack thriller, “13 Hours,” shouldn’t be far behind those two, so there could be a crowd in the mid-teen millions.

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“The 5th Wave” is tracking the strongest of the three wide openers, but not by much. Sony acquired the rights to the trilogy of novels by Rick Yancey with Graham King‘s production company, GK Films, and Tobey Maguire‘s Material Pictures. The young-skewing tale has the best social-media profile of the openers but isn’t breaking any records.

Brit J Blakeson directs from a screenplay by Susannah Grant, Akiva Goldsman and Jeff Pinkner. Nick Robinson, Ron Livingston, Maggie Siff, Alex Roe, Maria Bello, Maika Monroe and Liev Schreiber co-star. The PG-13-rated tale features Moretz as a 16-year-old who thinks she may have found romance amid the chaos of an alien invasion.

It has opened at No. 1 in six smaller foreign markets and taken in $8.5 million, and it was produced for $38 million by Columbia Pictures, in association with LStar Capital. It’s the only one of the three new films to have been reviewed, and it is at a weak 20-percent positive on Rotten Tomatoes.

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Demonic dolls have a solid track record of boosting horror films, and “The Boy” has one, so it could equal its $10 million production budget for STX and Lakeshore this weekend.

William Brent Bell (“The Devil Inside”) directs and Lauren Cohan (TV’s “The Walking Dead”) stars as a young American woman who takes a job as a nanny in a remote English village, only to discover that the family’s eight-year-old is a life-sized doll.

Rupert Evans, Jim Norton, Diana Hardcastle, Ben Robson and James Russell co-star in the PG-13-rated thriller, scripted by Stacey Menear and produced by Jim Wedaa, Roy Lee, Matt Berenson, Tom Rosenberg, Gary Lucchesi and Richard Wright.

If “Dirty Grandpa” reminds you of “Bad Grandpa,” the “Jackass” spinoff that broke out with a $32 million debut two years ago, you’re paying attention.

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This one features De Niro tricking his grandson (Efron) into driving him to Florida days before his wedding, but that kind of number is a longshot for the Lionsgate release of the film from QED International and Josephson Entertainment.

Dermot Mulroney, Julianne Hough, Aubrey Plaza and Zoey Deutch co-star in the R-rated comedy directed by Dan Mazer and written by John Philips.

“The Boy” will be in roughly 2,600 theaters, while “The 5th Wave” and “Dirty Grandpa” will be in around 2,800.

Oscar Nominee Snubs and Surprises: Ridley Scott, Sylvester Stallone and 17 More (Photos)

SURPRISE: Tom Hardy, nominated Best Actor, “The Revenant”
Leonardo DiCaprio has dominated conversations surrounding the grueling shoot and high art of "The Revenant," but Hardy suffered right alongside him -- and was rewarded with a Best Supporting Actor nomination.
Fox
SNUB: "Carol," not nominated Best Picture
Todd Haynes' dreamy period piece fetched acting, score and cinematography nominations but was shut out of the Best Picture race.
TWC
SURPRISE: "Ex Machina," nominated, Best Visual Effects
Alex Garland’s dystopian love story drew a nomination for Best Visual Effects over Colin Trevorrow’s record-setting “Jurassic World,” which is literally filled with screaming, stomping, fighting dinosaurs.
Universal
SNUB: Ridley Scott, not nominated Best Director, "The Martian"
The exclusion of Ridley Scott from the Best Director category is enough to make you want to move to Mars. While the longtime movie maestro claimed a Golden Globe award, he was left off of the 2016 list entirely, presumably bumped by surprise nominee Lenny Abrahamson.
Fox
SURPRISE: Sylvester Stallone, nominated Best Actor in a Supporting Role, "Creed"
Conversations on Ryan Coogler’s “Creed” never roared like an audience at a Las Vegas bout, but here we are — Rocky Balboa himself is headed to the Dolby Theater as Sylvester Stallone joins a Best Supporting Actor category that includes Mark Ruffalo and Christian Bale.
Warner Bros.
SNUB: Idris Elba, not nominated Best Actor, “Beasts of No Nation”
The excessively likable and highly pedigreed Elba could not earn a spot among the Best Actor crowd for “Beasts of No Nation” despite his edgy positioning with hot director Cary Fukunaga and streaming release platform Netflix.
Netflix
SURPRISE: Lenny Abrahamson, nominated Best Director, "Room"
Sure, the director’s “Room” is an emotional marathon and, frankly, a technical feat for creating a universe within those tiny walls -- but it was surely a surprise to hear his name called for Best Director over Ridley Scott’s.
TheWrap
SNUB: “See You Again,” not nominated Best Original Song, "Furious 7"
Wiz Khalifa and Charlie Puth’s “Furious 7” anthem served not only as a radio hit but also a tribute to the late Paul Walker. It was all but guaranteed that the creative eyebrows of Puth and NBA-level tattoos of Khalifa would suit up to claim a Best Original Song Oscar come February. Sorry boys, maybe we’ll see you again.
Universal
SNUB: Amy Schumer, not nominated Best Original Screenplay, "Trainwreck"
America’s acidic sweetheart Schumer was a fledgling leading lady in Universal’s “Trainwreck,” but had a serious shot at Best Original Screenplay for her comedy with Bill Hader and Brie Larson.
Universal
SURPRISE: “Inside Out,” nominated Best Original Screenplay
Any Pixar film is a presumed nominee if not winner, but it was unexpected to see the Amy Poehler-fronted film nominated for Best Original Screenplay. We imagine all the writers attached are feeling only Joy.
Disney
SNUB: Johnny Depp, not nominated Best Actor, “Black Mass"
Forget the Ed Harris makeup — Johnny Depp did an extraordinary job playing Whitey Bulger in Warner Bros. “Black Mass.” Many thought the A-lister would be among peers like Leonardo DiCaprio in the Best Actor category.
Warner Bros.
SURPRISE: Charlotte Rampling, nominated Best Actress, "45 Years"
Charlotte Rampling was nominated for her role in "45 years" in the Best Actress category along with Jennifer Lawrence, Cate Blanchett, Brie Larson and Saoirse Ronan. Rampling was a strong contender in October, but no one really talked about the film throughout the rest of award season. For example, she didn't receive a Golden Globe or SAG nomination.
Artificial Eye
SNUB: Will Smith, not nominated Best Actor, "Concussion"
He delivered a spectacular performance as Dr. Bennet Omalu in "Concussion," but Will Smith didn't receive a nomination in the Best Actor category despite making everyone's radar following his Golden Globes nom.
Sony/Columbia
SURPRISE:
"The 100-Year Old Man Who Climbed Out The Window and Disappeared," nominated Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
For the Danish film to be nominated at all came as a complete surprise because most hadn't even heard of this film. Released in May in only 76 theaters, it grossed $944,000 dollars. It took the place within the Makeup and Hairstyling category of films like "Cinderella," "The Danish Girl," "Ex Machina," "Black Mass" and "Star Wars," which all received Makeup Guild Awards nominations.
Music Box Films
SNUBS: "Peanuts"/"Minions"/"Good Dinosaur," not nominated Best Animated Feature
Those three films were left out of the nominations for Best Animated Feature, replaced by surprises "Boy and the World" and "When Marnie Was There." "Minions" is an especially surprising omission because it made $336 million domestically and broke several box office records for Universal at the time.
Universal/Fox/Pixar
SNUB: Aaron Sorkin, not nominated Best Screenplay, "Steve Jobs"
Sorkin is known as one of the best living screenwriters, and his adaptation of Walter Isaacson's "Steve Jobs" was one of this year's most anticipated scripts. Sorkin also received praise for the unique structure he established for the film, receiving a Golden Globe award for Best Screenplay on Jan. 10.
Getty Images
SNUB: Todd Haynes, not nominated Best Director, "Carol"
Many who saw the film "Carol," starring lead and supporting actress nominees Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara, praised it for how artfully it was put together. That makes Haynes' absence in the Best Director field perplexing.
Getty Images
SNUB: Steven Spielberg, not nominated Best Director, "Bridge of Spies"
Spielberg directed "Bridge of Spies," one of the most well-received films of the year, yet, the two-time Oscar winner was left out of the Best Director category by the Academy this year.
Getty Images
SNUB: Tom Hanks, not nominated Best Actor, "Bridge of Spies"
The two-time Academy Award winner delivered another stellar performance in "Bridge of Spies," but didn't receive a Best Actor nomination for the film, despite its six total noms. The film's supporting actor, Mark Rylance, was nominated for an Oscar this year.
Disney